History of Northeastern US Maple Syrup Price Trends

Average annual percentage rates of change (APR) in maple syrup prices (average gallon equivalent price in the United States) in seven northeastern United States and their aggregated region were determined for the years 1916 to 2012. The price trend lines were then compared on state-by-state and region-by-state bases. Maple syrup prices across all states and the region as a whole were increasing nominally at significant average annual rates. Nominal APRs ranged from 3.42 percent for Maine to 4.13 percent for New Hampshire, with the price in the combined region increasing at a rate of 3.96 percent annually. Real prices (discussed in 2012 constant dollars) were appreciating at significant annual rates in all areas except Maine. Real APRs ranged from 0.46 percent for Maine to 1.12 percent for New Hampshire, and the regional price was increasing at 0.95 percent annually. Whereas the region’s all-time high price of $40.38 was obtained nominally in 2008, the real price actually reached its highest point in 1987 ($53.89). Two other real price peaks were observed regionally: 1947 ($41.17) and 1972 ($45.31). No differences in trend line intercepts and slopes were found across the region. Obtaining price information for any one location has historically provided producers and processors a reasonable expectation of market activities occurring in the greater region. Production of maple-based products is one of the oldest and most vertically integrated industries in American agriculture. Price trends are one piece of information that can assist maple clientele with their decision making, be it the hobbyist, commercial operator, or someone contemplating entry into the market. Trend analysis provides information on past market activities and plays a key role in guiding forest management (Dennis and Remington 1985). The collecting of maple syrup production data by the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) dates to 1840, yet little information is currently available regarding maple syrup price trends. The findings of Sendak and Bennik’s (1985) maple production and cost analysis were valuable at the time because their 1972 to 1985 price series included a period of hyperinflation in the American economy. Unfortunately, their research covered a relatively short period and to our knowledge has not been updated. The past decade has also experienced several year-to-year increases of 5 percent or more in the inflation rate, and our interactions with maple producers have indicated an increased interest in price trend information. Our goal was to determine the average annual percentage rates of change (APR) in maple syrup prices recorded in Graham’s (2012) recent compilation of maple industry data for the northeastern United States. Our price series covered the years 1916 to 2012. Autoregressive functions were used to determine the APRs for seven states, with price movements between states compared to determine where differences existed. We then developed a weighted regional price and compared it with the states’ price trends. Historical Background Maple syrup production The first written accounts of maple sugaring date to the early 1500s, when French explorers were introduced to the practice by Native Americans (Moore et al. 1951). James Smith, a settler who had been taken prisoner by the Caughnawagas Indians of the Ohio Valley in 1756, described a very basic process of collecting maple sap from large gashes on the stems of maple trees and boiling down the sap in hollowed-out stumps. The market for maple sugar expanded rapidly during the 1700s and 1800s owing to the expense of importing cane sugar from the West Indies. Foreign reliance on cane sugar became looked on in an increasingly negative light, so much so that after visiting The authors are, respectively, Assistant Professor and Extension Specialist, Dept. of Forest Biomaterials, North Carolina State Univ., Raleigh ([email protected] [corresponding author]); and Associate Professor and Natural Resources Specialist, Ohio State Univ. Extension, Ohio State Univ., Millersburg (graham.124@osu. edu). This paper was received for publication in September 2014. Article no. 14-00088. Forest Products Society 2016. Forest Prod. J. 66(1/2):106–112. doi:10.13073/FPJ-D-14-00088 106 MCCONNELL AND GRAHAM Vermont in 1791, Thomas Jefferson suggested every citizen should have a maple orchard or sugar bush to reduce reliance on foreign cane sugar (Lawrence et al. 1993). Increasing populations meant that greater quantities of wood were needed for fuel, shelter, and durable goods, while productive lands needed to be converted from forests to farms for homesteads and food production. By the mid1800s, Vermont, for example, was only 20 percent forested (Vermont Agency of Natural Resources 2005). Westward expansion into the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes states resulted in a similar trend in land conversion, albeit approximately 50 to 75 years later. By the early 1910s, lands across the eastern United States began reverting back to forests either because they were ‘‘farmed out,’’ tax delinquent, or often both (Steer 1932). Maple production gradually fell in the 20th century with the decline in timber supply and science and technology making dairying a more profitable and year-round activity (Fig. 1). Cane sugar also became increasingly affordable for citizens owing to technological innovations (Whitney and Upmeyer 2004). Maple producers, historically more reluctant to adopt new technology (Kelley and Staats 1989), failed to keep pace. Maple sugaring increasingly became a supplemental rather than primary source of income. Government-sponsored tree planting initiatives of the 1930s promoted conservation and erosion control while also providing needed employment. On-farm demonstrations and field-based research helped farmers better understand sugar bush and sugarhouse management. Ill-advised practices, including crude tapping procedures and in-woods grazing, still persisted well into the 20th century. A study of adjacent woodlands conducted from 1938 to 1942 in Geauga County, Ohio, found that inwoods grazing negatively impacted forest conditions for maple syrup production (Dambach 1944). Revenue losses then were estimated at $10.67/acre, which in 1942 had the equivalent purchasing power of almost $130 today. Forests have rebounded in New England to make up a majority of the total land area in those states (US Forest Service Forest Inventory and Analysis 2015). Forest cover has returned primarily to only the more marginal sites in the upper Midwest, with more productive soils remaining in agricultural production. Farrell and Chabot (2012) found that states in the maple-producing region significantly differed regarding the utilization rates of their maple resource. Forest-based production on smaller farm woodlots, such as those of the upper Midwest, can be difficult to economically justify. Farrell’s (2012) net present value calculator gives producers the ability to evaluate the costeffectiveness of managing maple trees for either maple syrup or sawtimber production.